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Friday, November 2, 2012

"Officials in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut have asked power companies to concentrate on bringing electricity back to polling places first..."

"... but they aren't betting on that."
‘‘Some of the voting machines do have battery backup,’’ New York State Board of Elections spokesman Tom Connolly told the Associated Press. ‘‘We are also planning to get generators to polling sites, but it’s not like we have an unlimited supply of generators.’’ In New York City members of the Board of Elections have been assessing the damage to polling places, and Mayor Bloomberg said they might have to use alternative locations in some cases. The Daily News reports that in devastated areas like Breezy Point and the Rockaways, voting may take place in tents equipped with generators.

While Christie has been occupied by relief efforts, in New Jersey Secretary of State and Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno said on Thursday that the state is planning to deploy military trucks to polling stations that have lost power. Guadagno said people at these locations will vote using a paper ballot....
Presumably, there will be a way for everyone who tries to vote to be able to vote, but fewer people will try. There's some complacency: "Since the states hit hardest are all solidly blue, lower voter turnout won't swing the presidential election...." The state gets the same number of electoral votes regardless of how many people actually vote. That means, however, that lower turnout concentrates the power of those who do vote. If enough of the "red" people in those blue states get out when the "blue" people stay home, the state — and all its electoral votes — could go to the "wrong" candidate. Or do you imagine that would only happen if the election ended up being a blowout for Romney anyway?

How far back do you need to scroll in the history of Electoral Maps to get to a year where New Jersey/New York/Connecticut picked the Republican? 1988 to get New Jersey and Connecticut. 1984 to get New Jersey and Connecticut and New York. 1984, of course, was a complete blowout for Reagan, with Mondale getting only his home state of Minnesota, but 1988 was pretty much of a blowout too.

A recent New Jersey poll — just before the hurricane hit — had Obama ahead by only 10 points. He won by 16 points in 2008, and older polls showed him with a bigger lead. It's not inconceivable that the state that elected Chris Christie could choose Romney even without a hurricane-depressed turnout.

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