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Showing posts with label Mike Murphy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mike Murphy. Show all posts

Monday, April 14, 2008

"Well, he's not running for sociologist in chief, he's running for president."

On "Meet the Press," Bob Shrum articulated a potential new meme about Barack Obama. The subject, of course, was Obama's statement that small-town people "get bitter" and "cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations."

Mike Murphy picked up Shrum's "sociology" theme:
The--one of the big vexing things for Democratic elite is how to hell do working-class whites ever vote Republican? We give them all the class warfare stuff, but they still seem to do it. Well, they do it on culture. And the Democrats, many of them, look at this like some sociological disease to be explained away. And Barack, sitting in some $10 million backyard had to explain it like a sociologist...
For Murphy, unlike Shrum, "sociology" was not a way of encapsulating and setting aside a stray musing, but evidence of a central problem of Democrats: They're out-of-touch and elitist.

Shrum reworks his meme:
And I think he was explaining what was going on with a lot of those folks. Now, should he have said it that way? No.... People go with sociology, and he shouldn't be a sociologist.... People--sociology says that when people are in distress, when they're economically deprived, they, they hold onto the things in their lives that give them some sense of security and identity. That's faith, that can be hunting, that can be all of those things.
Sociology says.... Obama was only saying what the experts know, right? But it was not a good idea to say it when you need these people to vote for you.

James Carville stammers into the fray:
I'm just, I'm just saying that in--culturally, he, he, he, he--I know he's not sociologist in charge, but that he didn't have his kind of history right. He needs to have a better history and a better understanding. I think--and I think Bob is right, he's going to have a chance in the debate, and he's going to have a chance to, to, to kind of re-explain himself here. But this statement was really off in terms of his--its, its, its accuracy and understanding who "these people are." They're--they'll--there's a large segment of the Democratic Party that would like to win an election without these kind of white, working-class voters, and we need a substantial...
I think he's about to say that real Democrats can't stand those people Obama was talking about. Shrum talks over him and prevents him from going deeper into that hole.

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

"8 Questions the Potomac Primary Could Answer."

Dan Balz poses the questions:
1) Will a Sweep by Obama Make Him the Front-Runner?...

2) Will the Clinton-Obama Race Split the Party?...

What gives Democrats heart -- and clearly worries Republicans -- is that the Obama-Clinton contest does not reflect a deep, ideological split within the party....

The endgame will be critical if Democrats hope to avoid the kind of rupture that happened after the Carter-Kennedy battle of 1980. If the losing candidate goes out in a blaze of attacks, the bitterness will linger. If superdelegates appear to run counter to the popular vote, that will put the losing side in a deep funk...

3) Will Edwards Endorse Someone Soon?...

4) Will Obama Catch Clinton Among Superdelegates?

Yes -- if he keeps winning....

... "It'll be a combination of true enthusiasm [for Obama] and the old pol's rule of 'Be for what is going to happen,' " [wrote Republican consultant Mike Murphy].

5) Does a Long Democratic Contest Help McCain?...

Of course.... But the Democratic race has captured the country's attention, and McCain will find it hard to get much attention as long as that battle continues. If it ends in a civil way, the Democratic base will be energized and enthusiastic....

6) Will McCain Prove He Can Win Over Conservatives?...

7) How Long Will Huckabee Keep Going?...

[8)] Which Local Politicians Will Be on the VP Short List?
WaPo left the number "8" off the 8th question. I guess we're not ready to get excited about the VP question yet. Or the "local" (Potomac) politicians aren't too exciting.

Anyway, nice format and analysis from Dan Balz, even if WaPo's editors slacked off on the makeweight questions.

Maybe 7 is a better number. Let me suggest a compression — and reformulation — of 7 and 8:

Is Huckabee running for VP?
My answer is: No. I think Huckabee keeps going because he represents people who are normally taken for granted and who want to remain visible as a distinct bloc. Also, he's like Obama: an upstart political genius. Obama is there for the Democrats saying: Turn the page. Huckabee, too, in his own way, is saying turn the page on the past. You don't have to do what they are telling you to do.