"Wisconsin Senate: Thompson (R) 48%, Baldwin (D) 46%."

Rasmussen, this morning. 

The latest findings mark the first time Thompson’s been in the lead in this race since mid-August just after he won a hotly contested state GOP primary.  He was consistently ahead in surveys prior to that time back to October of last year. Since August, however, Baldwin’s support has ranged from 49% to 51%, while Thompson’s has fallen in the 46% to 47% range.

An immense amount of money was dumped into attack ads against Thompson, and it seems he's finally digging out from under that. I think he assumed he could coast to victory on his old popularity and Baldwin's extreme liberalism. (She's been rated the most liberal member of the House of Representatives.) Turns out he actually needed to fight for the position. It was stupid to assume otherwise, and the Wisconsin voters who chose him in the primary (over the attractive newcomer Eric Hovde) are really the ones who made the assumption that good old Tommy would win easily. Now, we Wisconsinites are stuck with a choice between the 70-year-old former governor and the most liberal member of the House of Representatives. I'd like to say we deserve better, but we don't.

Baldwin 51%, Thompson 47%.

A new Rasmussen poll on the Senate race in Wisconsin.

How did Tommy lose so much ground? Did Tammy's DNC speech elevate her? Was it all her negative ads? Is it Tommy not trying enough, thinking he could coast to victory?
Are people looking at pictures of the 2 of them and picking the prettier one?

Are Republicans kicking themselves for passing up the very pretty Eric Hovde?

Tommy Thompson is 11 points ahead of Tammy Baldwin in the Senate race in Wisconsin.

Tommy didn't win Tuesday's GOP primary by much. The old man had to fight off a handsome newcomer — Eric Hovde — and a lot of negative advertising was thrown around. But he's nevertheless way out in front of Baldwin already. This was utterly predictable, as is his ultimate victory over Baldwin in November.

The excitement in Wisconsin will have to be of the presidential political kind. Obama will have to show up here, and I wonder how much he will bother to help the predictable loser Baldwin. Remember, Obama did not stop by Wisconsin to try to help the Democratic challenger to Governor Scott Walker in the recall election last June. I think he didn't want his lack of magic to show and knew Tom Barrett was going to lose. But now Obama faces his last election — or so he says.* The polls showing Baldwin's dreary prospects are and will be much worse than what the public saw about Barrett. (But I believe Obama was looking at internal polls that show Barrett doing far worse than what the public saw before the recall election.)

Now, Obama needs to come to Wisconsin. These 10 electoral votes matter... a lot. They could determine the outcome of the presidential election. He must come to Wisconsin. Will he stand by Baldwin and promote her lost cause? It's a risk! It's not just the problem of getting loser on him, which we know from the recall he has an aversion to. It's that Baldwin is a lefty liberal, whose career has been based in Madison, and Obama needs to win voters from those parts of the state he's avoided in the past. He likes to show up for adoration in Madison and Milwaukee, but he won't win Wisconsin that way, and showing up in Madison/Milwaukee pushing Tammy Baldwin is not the way to talk to the rest of Wisconsin.

The rest of Wisconsin — including many Democrats — are going to vote for Tommy Thompson. Obama must talk to these people. Think about it:

Tommy has coattails!

Mitt Romney might win the presidency riding on Tommy's coattails.

It's all about Wisconsin, baby.
_______________________________

* I'd like to see him show his commitment to American politics by running for Governor or the Senate after he leaves the presidency. (But in/from which state? Is he going to go live in Illinois when he's done being President? I doubt it.)

New Marquette poll: Tommy Thompson 28%, Eric Hovde 20%, Mark Neumann 18%, Jeff Fitzgerald 13%.

With 21% still undecided, the Thompson lead isn't very impressive. And Thompson has gone down since the last poll, last month, when he was at 35%. Hovde too is down. He was at 23% last month. It's Neumann who's up — 8 points from last month's 10%. And Fitzgerald is still at the bottom, but he's more than doubled his support, having been way down at 6% in July.

Although Hovde is down 3 points, the gap between him and Thompson is smaller — from 12 to 8 points.

When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean towards, the vote becomes 33 percent for Thompson, 24 percent for Hovde, 21 percent for Neumann and 15 percent for Fitzgerald. Seven percent remain undecided. The Republican primary results are based on 519 likely voters (i.e., those who say they are certain they will vote in the August 14 primary).

I see 2 big questions: 1. Is non-Tommy sentiment essentially anti-Tommy? 2. If so, can the anti-Tommy people settle on one of the non-Tommys?

Among the 19 percent of likely primary voters who describe themselves as “very conservative,” there is a close-packed tie for the lead, with Hovde at 24 percent, Neumann at 22 percent, Thompson at 21 percent and Fitzgerald at 15 percent. Among those describing themselves as “conservative,” who make up 52 percent of likely primary voters, Thompson has an advantage at 27 percent to Hovde at 20 percent, Neumann at 19 percent and Fitzgerald at 13 percent. Among the 20 percent of likely voters calling themselves “moderate,” Thompson receives 34 percent to Hovde’s 18 percent, with Neumann at 14 percent and Fitzgerald at 13 percent.

It's hard to figure out how to vote strategically — assuming your goal, as a GOP primary voter, is, above all, for the Senate seat to go to the Republican. But it's an open primary, and Democrats might try to get the weakest candidate in. (But who would that be? Neumann?) Or Democrats might pick Thompson, on the theory that he's the least conservative. The Marquette pollster says that including only Republicans made little difference in the numbers — maybe because Democrats looking at Republicans split between the best loser (Neumann?) or the least-bad winner (Thompson).  

"In Missouri, Wisconsin and Arizona, a trio of wealthy businessmen have tapped their own bank accounts to surge near the lead of Republican primary contests this month..."

"... by portraying themselves as anti-politicians ready to come to Washington to fix things."

In launching these campaigns, the wealthy businessmen are trying to tap into the general disgust many voters have for Congress, which has an approval rating just above 15 percent in most recent public polls. 

They're tapping their our bank accounts and tapping our general disgust.

However, according to a Washington Post analysis, over the past four elections, only six senators have been elected without previously holding some kind of elected position, and [Wisconsin's Ron] Johnson is the only one to come directly from the business world. Before that, New Jersey Democrat Jon S. Corzine, after leaving Goldman Sachs, was the most recent businessman-outsider to come straight from the corporate world to the Senate, having spent more than $60 million of his own money to win his 2000 race.

“There are the Ron Johnsons and John Brunners, who made money making things,” [said Jennifer Duffy, the senior editor for the independent Cook Political Report]. “Their businesses were local and part of the community, or at least had a local feel to them. I think voters have a harder time understanding how a Hovde or a Romney made money.”

Hovde, before returning to Wisconsin after more than two decades running a fund in Washington, faces a similar hurdle as Romney in explaining to voters how he made his millions through investing in other companies and funds.....

"After 50 years at the top of the Sight & Sound poll, ['Citizen Kane'] has been convincingly ousted by ... 'Vertigo' – and by a whopping 34 votes..."

"... compared with the mere five that separated them a decade ago."

So what does it mean? Given that Kane actually clocked over three times as many votes this year as it did last time, it hasn’t exactly been snubbed by the vastly larger number of voters taking part in this new poll, which has spread its net far wider than any of its six predecessors.

But it does mean that Hitchcock, who only entered the top ten in 1982 (two years after his death), has risen steadily in esteem over the course of 30 years, with Vertigo climbing from seventh place, to fourth in 1992, second in 2002 and now first, to make him the Old Master. Welles, uniquely, had two films (The Magnificent Ambersons as well as Kane) in the list in 1972 and 1982, but now Ambersons has slipped to 81st place in the top 100.

Obviously, there's a lot of strategy in voting. It calls to mind the GOP primary here in Wisconsin. Tommy Thompson is "Citizen Kane." You know he's the favorite to win. How do you defeat him? You don't just pick your favorite film, or your favorite Hitchcock film. You've got to know the one film that all the anti-Kanes can get behind. It's been established over the years that that film is "Vertigo." You can't be all: But I think "Notorious" is better. You vote for "Vertigo." But this Sight & Sound voting has been going on for 50 years, so it's shaken out that you vote for "Vertigo" and not "Notorious" (or "Psycho" or "North By Northwest"). We haven't had time to figure out whether Mark Neumann or Eric Hovde is "Vertigo." Not enough information to get the strategic voting right.

***

You know... if I hadn't been very rich, I might have been a really great man.

Don't you think you are? 

I think I did pretty well under the circumstances. 

What would you like to have been? 

Everything you hate.

***

What's this doohickey? 
It's a brassiere! You know about those things, you're a big boy now.
I've never run across one like that.
It's brand new. Revolutionary up-lift: No shoulder straps, no back straps, but it does everything a brassiere should do. Works on the principle of the cantilevered bridge.

"Here we go – upset brewing in Wisconsin Rep Senate Primary?"

The candidate who would be upset is Tommy Thompson... but if you want to upset him, you need to pick one. There are 2 potential upsetters.

Give Wisconsin conservatives some advice. Let's say they want a not-Tommy. What's the scenario for getting the not-Tommy votes to go to one place — to Hovde/Neumann?

"With the help of a three-month, multi-million-dollar ad blitz, first-time candidate and wealthy businessman Eric Hovde..."

"... has reshuffled the Republican race for US Senate and emerged as a legitimate threat to the best-known figure in the field, former governor Tommy Thompson, two new polls suggest."

Where's the tipping point? The received wisdom is Tommy said he wants it and therefore it's Tommy's. But look at these new polls. I think there is potential for a sudden shift toward Hovde if people overcome the presumption that the nomination belongs to Tommy.

Understand: Hovde is one of the conservative alternatives to Thompson, and serious conservatives find Thompson insufficiently conservative, but of course they want to win the Senate seat in the end. So there's some risk-taking in jumping from Tommy to one of the conservatives. There are 2 other conservatives in the race — former congressman Mark Neumann and Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald — and both of them were much more well-known than Hovde, though much less well-known than Tommy Thompson. Hovde has now leveraged himself to the top of the conservative triad, which means that those who want someone from the conservative triad now know, with these 2 new polls, that they must coalesce around Hovde, or yield to the massive force that is Thompson.

Tommy Thompson is crushing Tammy Baldwin in the race to replace Herb Kohl in the Senate.

Rasmussen says it's 52% to 36%. Ouch.

Thompson isn't the candidate yet. Popular though he is, other Republicans are giving him competition. Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, no one is challenging Tammy Baldwin, the congresswoman who has for many years represented the district that includes Madison. Where are all the Democrats in this erstwhile blue state? Is there no one out there or have they somehow agreed to let Tammy have it? There ought to have been some very serious concern about her ability to appeal to people outside of the Madison area.


Nevertheless, Baldwin doesn't do all that badly against the other 3 Republican candidates. Mark Neumann and Eric Hovde only beat her by 2 percentage points. And she actually beats Jeff Fitzgerald by 1.

Baldwin earns overwhelming support from voters with a favorable opinion of the unions, while all four Republicans pick up similar support from those who regard the unions unfavorably.

All four Republicans continue to lead among male voters, while Baldwin leads among female voters against all her GOP opponents except Thompson. It’s Thompson 46%, Baldwin 40% among women voters in the state.

Baldwin picks up 86% to 91% support among Wisconsin Democrats against three of the Republicans, but against Thompson support in her own party falls to 74%. The former governor leads Baldwin 51% to 32% among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties. The other GOP candidates are also ahead among these voters but by narrower margins.

New Daily Kos/PPP poll: Walker 50%, Barrett 45%.

Likely voters. That's exactly the same as a month ago.

And in the Senate race: "Democrat Tammy Baldwin down 4-5 points against all comers (45-41 vs. Eric Hovde, 46-42 vs. Mark Neumann, and 47-42 vs. Tommy Thompson)."

Eric Hovde — running for the U.S. Senate in Wisconsin — "said President Barack Obama is sending the country down a 'dark path' and the Democratic Party has its roots in communism."

Reports Patrick Marley in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. I'd sure like a real quote there! So he used the phrase "dark path" — an unwise metaphor that can be picked up by race-card players. But what did he say that got paraphrased as "the Democratic Party has its roots in communism"?

We get this direct quote: "The other side -- our side -- is rooted in the philosophy of self determination, free-market capitalism and conservatism." Which sounds fine.

Hovde was speaking at the GOP convention, where he was eliminated on the first vote. Tommy Thompson, interestingly enough, was eliminated on the second vote, and no one is getting the endorsement:

None of the four Republican candidates for U.S. Senate were able to capture 60 percent support at the state party convention Saturday, meaning no one will get the party's official endorsement.

The vote was an especially tough blow to former Gov. Tommy Thompson — who was first elected to public office in 1966 — as he was eliminated in the second round of voting after getting just 18 percent support. It also served as a stinging rebuke to political newcomer Eric Hovde, who was eliminated in the first round of voting with 16 percent.

Saturday provided a boost to state Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald, who has dramatically trailed both Thompson and Hovde in fundraising but emerged with the most support from Republican Party faithful after the third and final round of voting. Still, he couldn't reach the threshold required to get the endorsement and the money, access to the party's grass roots network and other support that comes with it. Former U.S. Rep. Mark Neumann came in second behind Fitzgerald in the final vote.

"Wisconsin Senate: Thompson (R) 50%, Baldwin (D) 38%."

A new Rasmussen poll.

Only 5% support "some other candidate," which is — I think — awfully bad news for the younger, more crisply conservative candidate Eric Hovde (whom Rasmussen doesn't even mention).

It's also bad news for Baldwin — and I think, for Democrats generally — as Baldwin had been closing in on Thompson last month, getting her percentage up to 44. I'm tempted to speculate about the Walker recall election, which is the main thing we've been hearing about in Wisconsin in the last month. Baldwin's losing so much ground in that last few weeks might suggest that Walker's message is resonating.

ADDED: Hovde's campaign released an internal poll, conducted by North Star Opinion Research from May 6-8, showing Hovde gaining strongly on Thompson since February 7-9, when his name recognition was 27%. It's now 71%. (Thompson's is 100%.) In the earlier poll, Hovde got only 1% of the vote in a ballot test in which Thompson got 38%. In the new poll, Thompson has fallen to 30%, and Hovde is up to 27%. Hovde's Favorable/Unfavorable is 53/5, and Thompson's is 78/18.

Is Eric Hovde the new Ron Johnson?

Larry Kaufman on the GOP Senate primary in Wisconsin.

But Ron Johnson did not have to fight off Tommy Thompson, the former governor who chose not to go for a Senate seat when it required ousting an incumbent. It's an easier seat to get in the general election because the incumbent is retiring, but that makes the primary more contentious.

Is Thompson up for that fight? Or is he just assuming we know him and like him? So far...

... Thompson is a no-show for debates and often "phones in" speeches at the events he does attend. There's a growing sense that Thompson is acting like he's entitled to the job...

When is the Senate primary anyway? It's August 14, after the recall elections, which are June 5th. Kaufman tries to predict the post-recall political climate:

If Gov. Scott Walker loses, dispirited GOP voters will be far more likely to hunker down and cast a "safe" vote for Thompson to take on Democratic challenger Tammy Baldwin. 

Really? Wow. GOP folk go completely beta? Gotta win something.

But in the more likely case where Walker wins, the surge in Republican confidence would favor candidates like Hovde running on a stronger and more forthright fiscal conservatism. Wisconsin's open primary could also favor Hovde, since he's a fresh face with more crossover appeal than his opponents.

Why wouldn't they cross over and vote for whoever is the weakest candidate to face Baldwin? These open primaries are a bitch.

IN THE COMMENTS: Original Mike said:

Thompson clearly doesn't have it in him anymore. He should step aside. 

If the GOP had a brain, all the other candidates would step down and endorse Hovde. Don't you think? There's only one declared candidate on the Democratic side, the primary isn't until August, and it's an open primary.

"I think by this shift to a sense of entitlement and dependence on government, we're losing a bit of our soul."

The last line of the new ad for Eric Hovde, who's running for the GOP nomination for the Senate here in Wisconsin.



What do you think? We're losing a bit of our soul. A bit much? Exactly the right tone?

(I must say, he looks great. I can't call to mind a better-looking politician.)

Tommy Thompson "raises more than GOP foes... in the U.S. Senate race" says the Wisconsin State Journal headline.

But let's take a closer look. His campaign says he's raised "roughly $660,000 in the first quarter of 2012," but ex-congressman Mark Neumann has reported $654,000, which is obviously also roughly $660,000.

And then there's Eric Hovde, whom the Journal calls a "newcomer." He hasn't held office before. He's "raised almost $110,000 since he entered the race just over a month ago." One month, times 3, is $330,000, so maybe in a quarter, he'd raise half of what Thompson and Neumann have raised. Except that Thompson and Neumann are very well known Wisconsin politicians. Hovde's just getting started. He raised $110,000 in one month. And he seems to have his own money to spend. He was a hedge fund manager, and they say he has $1.6 million on hand, which I assume encourages donors. 

And it's the Hovde ad we keep seeing on TV (mainly during Brewers games):



Looking for that ad — which I think is impressive — I ran across this other ad of his, which I hadn't noticed on TV:



3 seconds in and I said, out loud, "Wow. I see why he's doing so well" and Meade said, "Yeah." Do I need to spell it out? Here's a clue:



Here's another: