"Though party officials typically dance around the unseemly issue of gerrymandering..."

"... this report is surprisingly candid and unabashed."

Is Nate Silver "concerned that during future elections, the accuracy of your predictions will lull readers into a mindset of 'it has been foretold, therefore I needn’t bother to vote'"?

Yes, "a bit."

Did Nate Silver "enjoy getting the ire of pundits (not the few who actually critiqued your method, models, or assumptions, but those who just dismissed your work wholesale)"?

At some point in the last few weeks of the election, I guess I decided to lean into the upside outcome a little bit in terms of pushing back at the pundits in my public appearances — as opposed to emphasizing the uncertainty in the model, as I had for most of the year....

Stupid poker analogy: part of playing well is in maximizing the amount of value you get from a hand in the event that things go well, in addition to mitigating your losses if they don't.

Haley Barbour wants to give the GOP "a very serious proctology exam."

"We need to look everywhere.... We have to look at everything in depth.... and be brutally honest."

That's perilously close to the rape theme that got the GOP into so much trouble this year.

Meanwhile, the Governor of Wisconsin — the illustrious Scott Walker — said the GOP needs a new "tone."

Yes. Back away from the nether orifices.

"We have always had these dense urban corridors that are extremely Democratic."

"It's kind of an urban fact, and you are looking at the extreme end of it in Philadelphia."

Look how many groups moved toward the GOP.

Surprising! It doesn't add up to a victory, but there are clues in there about how the GOP ought to change.

Here's another nice graphic, showing how groups break down by party. Looking at that, especially the breakdown between people who rate the economy as poor/people who rate the economy as not so good/people who rate the economy as excellent or good, I'd say Romney should have pounded away at how terrible the economy is. Obama got by with his "it's getting better" theme.

"Is this just math that you do as a Republican to make yourself feel better or is this real?"

Megyn Kelly asked Karl Rove — as hilariously/painfully magnified by Jon Stewart:

[VIEW CLIP HERE.]

As the tags below indicate, there's some other material in that clip too. If you're one of those who find this painful rather than hilarious, I would recommend that you seriously contemplate the meaning underlying the humor. It's important.

"Advisers to Mitt Romney insisted Wednesday that they were surprised by the scale of their loss to President Barack Obama..."

"... while big-time GOP donors griped about the campaign’s unflinching confidence in the final stretch."

“They ran a 20th century campaign in the 21st century,” said one Romney bundler, frustrated that the campaign made assumptions about the youth vote and voter intensity that didn’t pan out. “The anger is that they were entrusted to do certain things. It’s not like they were paid a $5,000 retainer to get a few dozen articles in an inside-the-Beltway paper. This is the major leagues.”...

"There were a lot of Republicans who were on calls that the campaign was having led to believe we had shots in Pennsylvania and Minnesota,” one Republican operative supporting Romney said. “I think Republicans are split right now between confused and shocked, and also I think they are wondering did the Romney campaign have numbers we didn’t have.”

In starker terms, the source questioned: “Was last week a head fake, or were they just not that smart?”

Boldface added.

"Allen West was quite a character to run against... And I’ll keep it at that..."

"... and hopefully that’s the last time I ever need to mention his name too."

Mia Love lost too, so last night was rough news for those who were stoked about black conservatives.

"I don't really care about politics. What I care about is how the pissant goings-on of political people affects the important things in this life..."

"... such as family, comfort, peace, security, art, beauty, freedom and happiness. And all of those things are further imperiled by last night's results."

Says Palladian, expressing something close to what I've been saying around Meadhouse since about 8 p.m. last night: It's time to stop talking about the election and have our lives be about love and beauty.

"Most of the nation shifted to the right in Tuesday's vote, but not far enough to secure a win for Mitt Romney."

Caption on the front page of the NYT right now, under a cool graphic of the U.S. map with flowing red and blue arrows.

"1,583 COMMENTS."

Hey! Thanks for all the comments on last night's election live-blog, from which I absented myself after a post at 8:04, noting the obviousness of Romney's impending loss of Wisconsin. I'd started the live-blog (at 5:12) saying "I'm thinking it will all be about Wisconsin" and "I'm Wisconsincentric." I really was.

I came back at 10:04 to say I was "distancing myself from the political fray, reconnecting to my old aversion to politics." And that's quite true. That's my instinct. When it's over, it's over, and it's been such a long campaign season. Time to stop obsessively looking at all the little numbers, take note of the one big number — 303 (or is it 332?) — and widen one's horizons.

What was I doing during those 2 hours? I had the TV on, and I was sitting back playing solitaire on my iPad (which is something I do when I want to listen without getting distracted into my own thoughts). I was calmly waiting for the inevitable to crystalize. I was adjusting to the new political reality in America.

I knew readers were having it out in the comments. Some were taunting and gloating. Some were telling us what they were drinking. There was an occasional "Where's Ann?"

I'm going to be very curious to hear what Althouse has to say tomorrow about her two-hour AWOL right in the heart of election night. Very odd, to say the least.

She always does this when she "live blogs", starts strong and craps out somewhere in the middle.

That last one was Palladian, who himself was away from the comments for a good long while (and who was drinking Ardbeg Uigeadail).

It's morning in Obama's Second Term America.

How are you feeling? If you didn't get what you wanted for Electionmas, how are you dealing with your disappointment? Me, I'm an optimist, and I instinctively look for the positives.

Tonight, more than 200 years after a former colony won the right to determine its own destiny, the task of perfecting our union moves forward.

It moves forward because of you. It moves forward because you reaffirmed the spirit that has triumphed over war and depression, the spirit that has lifted this country from the depths of despair to the great heights of hope, the belief that while each of us will pursue our own individual dreams, we are an American family and we rise or fall together as one nation and as one people.

I'm reading Obama's victory speech this morning, and, though I voted against him, I feel uplifted. I get a chill. Just as the writer of those words intended. Rereading them, my critical mind clicks in. A former colony won the right to determine its own destiny...? A colony? There were 13 colonies! Won the right? I read the Declaration of Independence to say that we had the right already, and we were entitled to throw off the power that oppressed us. The next phrase "perfecting our union" evokes the first sentence of the Constitution —  "We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union...."— and ties it to his campaign slogan "forward" and to "you," who voted for him, propelling him forward. I've got to wonder if the idea is to move forward past the lesser perfection of the Constitution, into a system in which individuals merge into one nation, one people, one family. But you can still pursue your own individual dreams. Go ahead! Pursue them! If you can

I know some of you are thinking: If we can in this supposedly more perfect but actually terrifying system of socialism The One will move us forward into. Here are 2 expressions of that fear that went up last night on Instapundit and that struck me as excessive and over-scared. At 10:41, Sarah Hoyt wrote:

I HAVE  QUESTIONS:  We’re not a country of land or blood.  We’re a country of beliefs.  If we’ve lost that, who are we?  Who am I?  And where do I go?

And at 11:00, Glenn Reynolds put up the text of an email from a reader named Zach White:

If Obama is reelected, good hardworking people should give up and go Galt. The tipping point is the 2012 election. Will the makers finally succumb to the takers? It’s pointless to think that if America reelects the most unqualified disastrous president in recent memory, we should stand our ground and continue fighting. it’s a signal that marxist free-lunchism and free birth control for everyone trump economic well-being and prosperity in the minds of the masses. Give up. Go Galt. Protect what few assets you have left, and start to hunker down for the coming storm. America is beyond screwed, well past the fiscal insanity of a number of EU countries. Think of it this way – we sit and watch California destroy itself and wonder who could be so foolish as to remain there and dedicate himself to indentured servitude in a state headed for disaster. Why don’t those fools just leave!! Same for Venezuela. as they descend into chaos and totalitarianism, do they reject Chavez more? The answer is plainly no. The spiral down the drain is irreversible and obvious. The more the government creates misery, the more they create programs to help people cope with the misery they’ve created, and we achieve a perpetual negative feedback loop. My advice is simple – if Obama is reelected, get a lawyer and a financial advisor, cash out as much of your assets as you can, and prepare yourself for a nosedive off a cliff. anything else would be imprudent and irresponsible to yourself and your dependents. Who wants to be a Dagny Taggart dedicating themselves to a life of indentured servitude trying to correct the wrongs of a heavy handed government? i will not be volunteering. I didn’t give up on America, America gave up on me.

I read that this morning and pictured the young man in his 30s or early 40s, a man with a wife and children, reading that anything else would be imprudent and irresponsible to yourself and your dependents and actually spending money on a lawyer and a financial advisor, extracting all his cash from his retirement accounts, quickly selling the home they live in, and heading for the hinterlands to hunker down for the nose dive. The wife is distraught, the kids freak out. Dad's gone nuts. No, I'm not nuts, children. I am Galt! And I'm doing the only thing that is not imprudent!

Talk about nosedives. Get a grip, those of you who didn't get what you wanted for Electionmas. It's Obama's Second Term America, and you'll need to make the best of it. I think you've got some better ideas than cashing out and hunkering down. I know I do.

Live-blogging election night.

5:12 Central Time: Won't you hang out with me while we watch the results come in? Here's a helpful map, showing what times the polls close in the various states. Polls in parts of Indiana and Kentucky closed a quarter hour ago, but what will be rather thrilling is the top of the hour, 7 Eastern Time, when Florida (minus the part under Alabama) and Virginia close, and then half an hour after that Ohio and North Carolina. Perhaps things at that point will be so decisive we will more or less know. Drudge is saying "EXIT POLLS TIGHT," giving Romney NC and FL and Obama NH, PA, MI, and NV, and listing OH, VA, CO, and IA as toss ups. What? No Wisconsin? I'm thinking it will all be about Wisconsin. But I'm Wisconsincentric.

5:25: After all this time watching the election, I wonder what life will be like tomorrow. I hope it's not 2000-style craziness with recounts and litigation and accusations of fraud. Let it be decisive, and let's accept the results — is that a good centrist idea we can all sign onto?

5:50: I'm watching CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News, and hanging out at MSNBC for the last few minutes, I get the feeling they think the GOP will do well. Why? They're going at the topic of the way the GOP isn't likely to take the majority in the Senate. I'm just getting the feeling that they are moving into that place of refuge.

6:00: Nothing exciting at the top of the hour. Virginia not called. But that's not surprising. It was expected to be close.

6:30: Romney wins West Virginia, unsurprisingly. NC and Ohio are now closed, but they're not calling it, unsurprisingly. CNN reveals exit polls: 49/49 in NC and 51% Obama, 48% Romney in Ohio. Impressive for Obama... if the exit polls are right.

6:41: Boring! Maybe you should go for a run, have sex, or guzzle an Ardberg along with a chocolate bar and then come back in 20 minutes or an hour or so. Wouldn't that make more sense?

7:00: CNN projects Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Maine (3 of the 4), and Rhode Island for Obama. Oklahoma for Romney. Many others not called.

7:27: On Fox News, Rove is on fire. Joe Trippi is stammering and looking worried. Good for Romney, right?

7:37: Watched ABC network for a while and there's a wild-eyed desperation that tells me they know Obama's in trouble.

8:00: CNN calls Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska (3 of the 5), North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wyoming, and Mississippi to Romney. Michigan, New York, and New Jersey for Obama. (There goes Michigan, which had been considered possible for Romney.)

8:02: They can't call Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota, New Mexico, and my home state Wisconsin.

8:04: 52% Obama, 46% Romney — CNN exit poll in Wisconsin. That looks bad for Romney.

10:04: Oh, I see I've been away for 2 hours. I couldn't take the stress. It's not as though you're reading this blog for news updates. What do you want from me? Gushings of emotion?  I'm being mellow, distancing myself from the political fray, reconnecting to my old aversion to politics. The people will have what they have chosen, and I hope for the best, especially for the young people. Tomorrow there will be new things to talk about, I assume. The election is over, is it not? Obama will win, perhaps without the popular vote, like Bush. What will he do with it? Take us to a higher ground, at last? Or nothing at all.

"For every inch above normal rainfall, overall turnout drops by a little less than 1%, but Democratic turnout drops by 2.5%."

"Every inch above average snowfall decreases turnout by 0.5%. Since the water equivalent of 10 inches of snow usually equals an inch of rain, it's more likely snow will effect an election."

The word is affect, but okay, thanks for the info.

Wisconsin could have some rain in major Democratic areas and snow in the swing area around Green Bay. If the race were tighter in the badger state, I'd wonder more about whether the weather could flip the race.

Hmm. Tighter than 49% to 49%?

Anyway, the weather here in southern Wisconsin is "Light Snow Mist." Soon to be rain.

"Are the Democrats trying to steal Pennsylvania?"

Power Line is asking... and we all should be monitoring.

Romney trouncing Obama in Ohio.

So far.

UPDATE: There are questions about whether these are real.

The first votes are in... and it's a tie.

"Ten voters in the tiny village of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, cast the first Election Day votes of the 2012 general elections at 12:01 a.m. ET, in keeping with a tradition that began in 1960... Five voted for President Obama and five voted for Mitt Romney."

Email from CNN.

Playing out the Electoral College counts.

A great graphic depiction. (Click on options at the top, picking states and see the various paths to victory.)

Bob Dylan in Madison: "We tried to play good tonight since the president was here today."

"Don’t believe the media. I think it’s going to be a landslide."

Spoken from the stage last night in Madison, in the middle of his encore song "Blowin' in the Wind."

Which squarely contradicts my late-night post about Bob Dylan's concert: "And not a word... not a word... about politics. No imploring us to vote for Obama. Or even to vote."

I loved the absence of politics, and I believe/have believed that Bob Dylan has almost entirely avoided politics since the early 1960s. I can see a way to say his quote about Obama is enigmatic, sardonic, and in some real way nonpolitical: Don't believe what they're telling you in the newspapers. A sound and distanced observation. Etc.

But no subtle interpretation can undo my over-strong "not a word." So I have to confess that Meade and I have been to a lot of Bob Dylan concerts. We know he will do one encore. We even knew it would be "Blowin' in the Wind." Halfway through it, we slipped out into the night. We zipped right out of there.

Far between sundown’s finish an’ midnight’s broken toll
We ducked outside the doorway, snowflakes drifting...

It was as if they saw us leave. Good! Althouse and Meade are gone. Now we can talk about politics.

IN THE COMMENTS: Many of you say that "I think it’s going to be a landslide" is ambiguous. Especially after "Don't believe the media." And the idea of trying to "play good" because the President was in town is kind of comical — playing at being deferential to authority. He never says Obama's name, and that landslide might go toward the other guy. This reminds me of an old law school anecdote: The famous old professor says: "It's obvious how this case will be decided." And the young lawprof says: "Yes, but which way is it obvious?"

Chip Ahoy said it best:

Uh, excuse me, how do you extract "I think Obama will win in a landslide" from "I think there will be a landslide."

I know what you're going to say.

There is a sentence before that and another sentence after following and those three sentences together add up to an Obama endorsement and I say they do not. I am interpreting them as I go and those are three separate things. Not that I care, it's that sometimes everyone around me is wrong and I'm the only one around who thinks otherwise and as much as I'd like to stay a quiet little church mouse I am compelled to be a pillar of strength momentarily, stand up and say so.

And I defend our walking out:

Actually, the way Dylan uses "Blowin' in the Wind" suggests he means it as a closing-credits/filing-out-of-the-theater song. The show was over at "Watchtower" and you're supposed to go home, you're not leaving, and he comes back to say: okay, here's that famous oldie, now get outta here.

"Romney campaign internal polling puts Republican nominee up ONE POINT in Ohio and TIED in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin."

"Internal poll show Romney trailing in Nevada, reflected in a consensus among senior advisers that Obama will probably win the state. Early voting in Nevada has shown very heavy turnout in the Democratic stronghold of Clark County and union organisation in the state is strong."

More polls, sorry. I know the previous post expressed a longing for more soul and subjectivity.