"Wisconsin Senate: Thompson (R) 50%, Baldwin (D) 38%."

A new Rasmussen poll.

Only 5% support "some other candidate," which is — I think — awfully bad news for the younger, more crisply conservative candidate Eric Hovde (whom Rasmussen doesn't even mention).

It's also bad news for Baldwin — and I think, for Democrats generally — as Baldwin had been closing in on Thompson last month, getting her percentage up to 44. I'm tempted to speculate about the Walker recall election, which is the main thing we've been hearing about in Wisconsin in the last month. Baldwin's losing so much ground in that last few weeks might suggest that Walker's message is resonating.

ADDED: Hovde's campaign released an internal poll, conducted by North Star Opinion Research from May 6-8, showing Hovde gaining strongly on Thompson since February 7-9, when his name recognition was 27%. It's now 71%. (Thompson's is 100%.) In the earlier poll, Hovde got only 1% of the vote in a ballot test in which Thompson got 38%. In the new poll, Thompson has fallen to 30%, and Hovde is up to 27%. Hovde's Favorable/Unfavorable is 53/5, and Thompson's is 78/18.