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Monday, September 12, 2011

Is Perry ahead in the polls mainly because Republicans think he's most likely to win?

I'm reading this new CNN poll of Republicans and " independents who lean toward the GOP":
Thirty-six percent, for example, see him as the strongest leader in the field, with Romney second at 21 percent. According to the poll, 35 percent say Perry is the Republican candidate most likely to get the economy moving again, with Romney in second at 26 percent.

Nearly three in ten say that Perry is the candidate who is most likely to fight for his beliefs, with Palin in second place at 23 percent and, significantly, Romney in a distant tie for fourth at just 11 percent.
But Perry's biggest strength may be the electability factor, with 42 percent saying he has the best chance of beating Obama next year. Some 26 percent say Romney has the best chance of defeating the president....
As I said in the previous post, Perry gives Romney the opportunity to demonstrate a fighting spirit.
The poll indicates that Perry doesn't fare quite as well on issues. Only 26 percent say he is the Republican hopeful who is most likely to agree with them on the issues. That's good enough for the top spot on that measure, too, but it's a far cry from the low 30s and high 40s Perry pulls on electability and leadership.

Perry's biggest Achilles heel may be the likeability factor. Only one in four say he is the most likable GOP candidate out there, his lowest mark on the six items tested.
He still comes out in first place, though! (PDF here.) Second place goes to Palin, who's not even running (yet). So what kind of an Achilles heel is it that one in 5 persons thinks Sarah Palin is more likeable than you?!

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