Obama's slightly ahead in most polls...

... by he's actually in serious trouble, for 4 reasons. I'll just highlight reason #3: Money.

Romney has been outraising Obama for the last three months; in July, the GOP candidate and his party took in $101 million to Obama and the DNC's $75 million. Obama also has been spending his campaign cash faster than it's coming in, investing up front in staff, field offices, and the early ad blitz they hope will define Romney. That means the Republicans also now have more cash on hand to spend down the stretch, $170 million to the Democrats' $144 million as of the end of June. And then there's all the pro-Romney super PACs, which are expected to far outgun their Democratic counterparts, possibly spending as much as $1 billion. As Obama himself complained at a campaign stop in Colorado Thursday: "Over the next three months, you will see more negative ads, more money spent than you've ever seen in your life. I mean, these super PACs, these guys are writing $10 million checks and giving them to Mr. Romney's supporters."

Funny that he's complaining about the next 3 months. He's gone heavily negative in the past 3 months, spending a disproportionate amount of money early, betting that he can win by planting it in everyone's head that Romney's an evil rich guy. If that gamble were working, Obama would be doing better in the polls. Now, Romney has much more money. It's scarcely unfair! Obama and his people made a decision about how to campaign, and they should own it, not whine about it.

And I don't trust the polls. I'd like to see the internal polls, which are not about spinning public opinion. Presumably, these displays of desperation tell us something about what they're looking at in the secret, honest polls.