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Thursday, June 7, 2012

"The Romney Campaign's 'Route to 270' Doesn't Get to 270."

The Atlantic's Molly Ball asserts.
So I did the math: If Romney flips those six states [Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia] and no others, how many electoral votes would he end up with? Romney starts from a baseline of 179 electoral votes -- McCain actually won 173 electoral votes, but Census-based reapportionment has added electoral votes to red states and subtracted them from blue states. Add to that Colorado's 9 votes, Florida's 29 votes, Iowa's 6 votes, Nevada's 6 votes, Ohio's 18 votes and Virginia's 13 votes, and you get 260. 
So you need 10 more electoral votes? Hmmm.... can we think of a state that has 10 electoral votes? Let me think really hard, because for the last year and a half, I've just been so distracted by....

Wisconsin.

By the way, do we usually shift over to talking in Electoral College terms this early in the election season? It seems to me that June 7th is really early for ruminating over how the challenger to the incumbent gets to 270.

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