"I can't imagine [a state that] would say we aren't going to do this new Medicaid program."

The Supreme Court's decision removes the coercion of the Medicaid expansion. The states no longer face losing all their Medicaid funding. But will they opt out? They are still tempted by federal money, just not as much money. Here are the states that joined the argument against the law:



They failed to get the entire new program stricken down, so there's still a decision whether to opt in. Since the most coercive aspect of the program is gone, it's now a harder decision to make.

The federal government will pick up the entire cost of the expansion for the first three years. After that, it will pick up 90% of the cost and leave the remaining 10% to states. While that leaves only a small share for states, many have argued even that's too much given their tight budgets.

Several states said Thursday that, despite the ruling, they have no plans to opt out of the expansion. Washington state, which was a plaintiff in the Supreme Court lawsuit, said it will likely take the new federal money and expand its Medicaid program to about 500,000 residents in 2014. "That is the best bargain one can buy," said Democrat Gov. Christine Gregoire, who objected to the state Republican attorney general's decision to join the lawsuit. "I can't imagine who would say we aren't going to do this new Medicaid program."

So the truly heavy-handed coercion is gone, but the enticement that is left is still highly persuasive.