Walker 50%, Barrett 45%.

A new Rasmussen poll of likely voters.

Both candidates draw overwhelming support from voters in their respective parties. Walker holds a 51% to 43% lead over Barrett among voters not affiliated with either political party. Men prefer Walker by a 58% to 40% margin, while women favor Barrett 50% to 43%....

IN THE COMMENTS: jeffmacguy asks:

[C]an someone with some Wisconsin insight please tell me how these people are going to react when Walker wins big? I mean, I know their heads won't literally explode, but I suspect some of the folks who were unhinged during last years sit-ins will react poorly when they realize that there's nothing they can do. 

I believe a process of pre-closure is already very far along. I think a year ago, people were cranked up over the potential for a recall, and there were some satisfying steps along the way: initiating the petition drive, collecting signatures, filing "over a million" signatures, getting 900,000+ signatures declared valid, and  — the climax — getting the recall election certified.

Since then, it's been kind of a drag. Kathleen Falk's pledge to the unions pulled her down. The Blandness of Barrett moved in and caused everyone to understand he was inevitable. I think people stopped putting so much of a stake in the ultimate outcome. They see the defeat coming, not surely yet, but looming in the near distance. They're prepared.

Ah, well, we fought long and hard. We had the glory of the battle. We didn't let Walker have his way without a fight. We called him to account. We made him uneasy. We achieved our goals. The recall election itself was the moral victory. Barrett would not have been able to change anything anyway. Better to be on the outside, criticizing Walker, than to witness Barrett's incapacity to undo Walker's damage. 

They will turn away, hiding their disappointment and saying: "The grapes are sour, and not as ripe as I thought."