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Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Will the Wisconsin GOP senators all survive the recalls?

Early results say yes!

UPDATE: Here's the Twitter feed #Wirecall. AND: Here are the AP results, showing the precinct totals.

UPDATE 2: "Sen. Luther Olsen has been declared the third GOP incumbent to hold his seat today by a Madison TV station."

"Sen. Luther Olsen is on his way to his election night party, his campaign manager announced."

If 4 of the 6 GOP incumbents win, then the Democrats have not taken over the Senate. It looks as though Kapanke will lose, so the question is what happens with Hopper and Darling. All 3 of those incumbents must go down, or the Democratic cause is lost. Darling is expected to win, though if you look at the numbers right now — 9:57 CT — she's down. But only 1 of 11 Waukesha precincts have reported. This is a flashback to the Prosser-Kloppenburg results reporting. You can try to make some predictions by looking at the final results from the Prosser-Kloppenburg race.

UPDATE 2, 12:22 a.m. CT — There are still 13 precincts remaining in the recall against incumbent Alberta Darling, but I did the math, assuming the remaining precincts have a proportionate number of votes and that the percentages in the remaining precincts are the same as in the rest of the county. With those assumptions, Darling wins by about 2500 votes, so I'm predicting Darling will win, leaving the Democrats picking up only 2 seats and not the needed 3. The majority in the Wisconsin senate will, if that pans out, stay with the GOP (without regard to what happens in the 2 recall elections next week).

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